Sample issue · Week ending Sep 25, 2026
This is a real sample of what the Weekly Market Report looks like — the same shape every issue takes. Figures were verified against published sources on 2026-09-28. Get the report free every week →
Stocks rose even as the 10-year Treasury yield touched its highest level since 2007 — Wall Street's tug-of-war between AI optimism and 5% interest rates ended the week with the optimists winning.
| Friday close | Week | Year to date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,743.41 | +1.2% | +13.1% |
| Nasdaq-100 | 30,608.13 | +3.3% | — |
| Dow Jones | 51,828.62 | +0.3% | +7.8% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,837.55 | −0.8% | +14.3% |
| VIX (fear gauge) | 14.85 | −5.2% Fri | — |
| 10-year Treasury | 5.18% | +16 bps | — |
| 2-year Treasury | 4.81% | — | — |
| 30-year Treasury | 5.50% | high since 2004 | — |
| 30-yr fixed mortgage | 7.03% | — | — |
| WTI crude oil | $92.52 | −2.2% Fri | — |
| Gold | $4,326.80/oz | +0.7% Fri | — |
| Bitcoin | $83,990 | −0.4% Fri | — |
The 10-year Treasury yield surged as high as 5.22–5.23% on Thursday — its highest since 2007 — on strong PMI data and rising bets the Fed will hike again in October. The 30-year hit 5.50%, its highest since 2004. Normally that crushes stocks. This week it didn't: the S&P 500 still finished within 0.7% of its all-time high.
Why it matters: When stocks ignore 5% yields, the market is telling you earnings expectations are doing the heavy lifting.
At Meta Connect, Mark Zuckerberg unveiled new hardware and AI products built around its Muse AI agent. Meta stock surged 4.5% Thursday, gave back 3.5% Friday, and still finished the week up roughly 13% — the single biggest catalyst in tech, and a big reason the Nasdaq beat the Dow. Microsoft added nearly 4% on Friday.
Why it matters: The AI trade is still the market's engine — but it's increasingly a stock-picker's market within it (Oracle fell 7% on the same week).
WTI crude fell more than 2% Friday to $92.52 after reports the U.S. and Iran discussed a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. That single headline took pressure off both inflation fears and Treasury yields into the weekend.
Why it matters: Energy is the swing factor — every dollar off oil is breathing room for both bonds and stocks.
The Federal Reserve raised rates 25 basis points at its September 16 meeting — to 3.75%–4.00%, its first hike in three years, on a unanimous 12–0 vote. Sixteen of eighteen officials penciled in at least one more hike before year-end, with the median projection at 4.1%.
Why it matters: This is the headwind behind everything — mortgages at 7%, small caps lagging, utilities down 3% on the week.
Costco reported a strong quarter: $6.75 per share vs. $6.54 expected, sales up 11.2%. But $0.15 of that EPS came from a one-time $184 million tariff refund — and Costco was the sixth major retailer this season whose profits were flattered by one-time tariff refunds.
Why it matters: Headline earnings look better than underlying earnings right now — read the footnotes.
Sector check: technology +3.1% and healthcare +1.6% led; energy −3.1% and utilities −3.0% lagged. Growth stocks (+2.3%) beat value (−0.4%).
Net sales $93.9 billion (+11.2%), paid memberships up 3.8% to 84.1 million with renewal rates at 92.3%. Digital sales surged 19.5%. The stock slipped anyway: with the tariff refund backed out, the “beat” was slim, and at 46 times earnings the market prices perfection. Lesson for the week: great companies can report great quarters and still fall if the price already assumed it.
Quick hits: dollar-store and consumer-staples names posted solid results, confirming the budget-conscious consumer theme. Akamai (AKAM) jumped 3% Friday after Anthropic committed at least $11.6 billion over seven years for cloud infrastructure.
Prices say one thing this week; the internals say another — and that's exactly when fundamentals matter most.
Expected earnings growth — the year-over-year change in forward earnings, the market's collective guess about the future — is running near +38% and rising: green. Trailing earnings — what companies actually earned — are expanding at about +12%: green (though the latest quarter was juiced by one-time items, so treat it as genuine but noisy). And the week's price momentum is green too, with the S&P up 1.2%.
But look under the hood: only about one in four S&P 500 stocks sits above its 50-day average. The index is near its high; most of its members are not. That's the tension to watch.
The full picture — the three lights, the earnings charts, the breadth data — is live on the Market Climate Dashboard.
Stocks ignored 5% yields this week because earnings expectations are strong. That's fine, but it means prices are priced for good news. Good news needs to keep coming.
When the index rises but most stocks don't, owning “the market” and owning the right stocks are very different things. This is why we learn to read breadth, not just headlines.
Six big retailers beat earnings this season partly because of one-time tariff refunds. The headlines said “record profits.” The footnotes said “one-time.” Always ask what's recurring and what's not.
None of this is a recommendation to buy or sell anything — it's how to read a week like an investor instead of a spectator.
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